The AI advantage: How the next two Rugby World Cups will be won
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One of the early experiments involving machine learning was done by the Icahn School of Medicine in New York to predict cancer in patients.
Fed with the data of 700,000 patients, the model began spotting new patterns in the data that to the human eye, weren’t visible or didn’t make any sense. The AI model proved to be very good at finding patients with early-stage diseases. As a side, it also figured out warning signs of other disorders like schizophrenia.
The conundrum was researchers running the project had no idea how it was doing it, and still don’t.
As with the case with most AI models, the more data you have to train it, the better the results you get.
They are predictive machines, evolving towards superhuman-level intelligence. The applications are going to have wide use cases but in the realm of professional sport, obtaining the AI advantage is going to be a necessity over the next decade.
You don’t even need to explain the rules of the game. We’ve learnt that the AI models can learn the rules just by watching. Ingest years and years of game footage, it will understand the sport at a level greater than any human could.
You can start to imagine the impact this is going to have. And if you don’t have it, it will be used against you.
An AI model trained on enough games of professional rugby will find every weakness or vulnerability in every single player on the field. Just like the cancer research team found, it will soon find patterns that are unrecognisable to the human eye.
If it watches every game that a professional player has played over their lifetime, it will take into account every single read in defence that they have made, what they do when presented with this picture or that picture, what players they struggle to tackle, what technique they use. Every single decision.
All of that information will be calculated in seconds and result in the AI planning and strategising on how to take advantage.
Armed with that information, it will come up with the perfect play to expose those players. Going further, it will come up with the perfect game plan to win against any combination of 23 players.
If there is a match-up where one team theoretically loses 99 times out of 100, the model will be able to find the formula for the one outcome they can win and show them how to do it.
Upload every game possible from the team of an opposition coach and the AI will figure out every tactic they’ve ever used, every flaw in their plans, and predict what they will do next and the best way to play.
The job of the analyst is going to become rather easy, but the knowledge obtained at such speed will lead to incredible outcomes in game strategy and play.
Teams will have to continually come up with new plans, which will be driven by AI. Coaches who can’t or won’t evolve will get weeded out.
Even in the realm of managing your own team, the technology will be invaluable.
It will be able to detect the slightest changes in a player’s running style, perhaps indicating that player isn’t 100 per cent fit and has a problem.
If the model has all that player’s training data and has been trained on hours and hours of footage of that player’s movement, it will start predicting with scary accuracy whether an injury is likely to occur.
To be clear, the AI is never going to be able to win games of rugby, which are always decided by humans on the actual field. That is sport and won’t change.
The physical attributes still matter greatly, the skill, strength, size, power and the conditioning of the players. No AI can overcome a disproportionate mismatch in this area.
But between two teams that are evenly matched, the one that has superhuman level intelligence feeding them information about the battle at hand is going to improve their chances of victory greatly.
And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand, where very little separates them, that is going to matter.
Professional sport is always after one per cent improvements, this is going to add far more than one per cent.
Right now it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to build these models. And they lie in the hands of very few, the tech giants who are building major data centres and feeding them as many data points as they can get their hands on.
But once model access is obtainable, professional sports teams will start building their own AI models for competitive use.
If one of the big four rugby nations were able to get a hold of one right now they would increase their chances of winning the 2027 Rugby World Cup greatly. By 2031 you would think this will be widespread.
Quite quickly the AI advantage is going to be a necessity as teams that adopt AI will gain an edge that is far superior to those that don’t.
That is the AI advantage.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
86 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
3 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
19 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to comments