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Cream rising to top again in Champions Cup – Andy Goode
The Champions Cup has had its detractors in recent years but it’s still the best club competition in the world and the cream is rising to the top again.
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The new format may mean a couple of teams have made it through to the knockout stages with just one win on the board but it did its job in reducing the number of dead rubbers in the pool stages and getting us an extra round of the serious stuff at this time of year.
I could see the attraction in bringing in an FA Cup style draw from this point on to create even more jeopardy but I do think it’s right that teams are rewarded for their form during the pool games and I like the fact you can map out who will face who in the quarter-finals next weekend.
History tells us you only normally get a couple of away wins out of eight Champions Cup knockout ties, with home sides winning 71 per cent of the time, and my money is on La Rochelle and Bath to be the big winners on the road.
The champions have to travel to South Africa to face the Stormers but the trip to Cape Town isn’t anywhere near as daunting as going to Pretoria with all the issues associated with altitude and they should have won there back in December.
They’ve got even more of their big men back and firing now too and I think the physicality of the likes of Will Skelton, Uini Atonio, Levani Botia, Greg Alldritt and Jonathan Danty will get them over the line.
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Bath may not have quite the same giant humans as La Rochelle but the back row of Ted Hill, Sam Underhill and Alfie Barbeary is enough to cause any team problems and they definitely have the edge over Exeter in the halfbacks with Ben Spencer and Finn Russell.
The Chiefs have surpassed everyone’s expectations so far this season but they’re an extremely young side and a few cracks have just started to show in recent weeks so I think there’ll be an away win at Sandy Park too.
Saracens are normally a team you can back to win on the road in a major knockout game but they were hammered 55-15 in Bordeaux in January and the absence of Owen Farrell is a massive blow to their hopes.
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That is one of as many as five repeat fixtures from the pool stages, which is something that will probably never happen again once the format is tweaked, but I don’t see that as being a major issue at all.
It didn’t look ideal when the Round Of 16 match-ups fell that way at the end of January but we’ve had a break of almost three months since then and now they just feel like intriguing standalone fixtures, with the recent meetings adding a bit of extra spice if anything.
If things go to form, there’ll be a couple more repeat match-ups in the quarter-finals as well. Leinster are odds-on favourites to beat Leicester and that could set up a mouth-watering clash with La Rochelle in Dublin and I think Toulouse will be too strong for Racing so they could be welcoming Bath to the south of France again.
Then I think Northampton will be welcoming the Bulls and Bordeaux hosting Harlequins to complete the quarter-final line-up and, as well as home advantage counting, I think that shows that the cream is rising to the top as it always does in this competition.
The English clubs had a fantastic opening weekend back in December with seven of them winning in the same round of the Champions Cup for the first time ever, despite the fact they had been written off due to the financial issues in the Premiership.
However, things were always likely to even themselves out a bit over the course of four rounds and we have ended up with a very balanced split of six clubs from the Premiership, five from the URC and five from the Top 14 in this year’s Round Of 16.
If it goes the way I think it will, there’ll be at least a couple of teams from each league in the quarter-finals next weekend as well and then it’ll be the teams with the pedigree at this level and the greater power in their game that prevail.
Knockout rugby is a different beast and they used to say defence wins championships, it still does to a certain extent, but nowadays it’s power and physicality that gets you over the line more often than not in big one-off games.
We’ve seen that in the World Cup and Six Nations, as well as in the latter stages of the Champions Cup in the past few years, and you can’t look past the usual suspects of La Rochelle, Toulouse and Leinster on that basis.
It’d be great to see a side like Northampton with their free-flowing attacking game, combined with a bit more pragmatism and steel this season, crash the party but sheer size and experience is likely to count when it comes to the quarters and semis.
There’ll no doubt be some phenomenal rugby this weekend with a bit of South African sunshine and some English endeavour adding to proceedings but expect the French and Irish juggernauts to be the last ones standing in the weeks to come.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
86 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
3 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
19 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
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