Super Rugby schedule strength: Blues have had the weakest run so far
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Don’t let the Super Rugby Pacific standings mislead you; only half of this race has been run and the home stretch looks significantly different for most teams, meaning all seedings are far from safe.
In this exercise, we look at which teams have had the toughest and easiest schedules to date, calculated by taking the win percentage of each team’s respective opponents and finding the average. We then look at which teams have the most and least favourable schedules remaining in the season, using the same method, to provide a clearer picture of what the seedings might look like when it comes to locking in quarter-final matchups.
Below you’ll find the rankings of teams’ strength of schedule, ordered from least to most difficult, with the average win percentage of their respective opposition in brackets.
Schedule strength so far
12. Blues (35.4% opposition win rate)
11. Brumbies (38.1)
10. Chiefs (38.7)
9. Fijian Drua (40.7)
8. Hurricanes (42.5)
7. Rebels (47.7)
6. Waratahs (52.7)
5. Moana Pasifika (55.4)
4. Reds (56.8)
3. Highlanders (63.8)
2. Crusaders (64)
1. Western Force (64)
The Blues have had the weakest schedule of all teams during the opening half of the season, with an average opponent win percentage of just 35.4. The team currently holds the top place on the Super Rugby Pacific ladder, having played one more game than the unbeaten Hurricanes, so they’ve certainly made the most of the cards they’ve been dealt.
The Reds have had the fourth most trying schedule to date while occupying sixth place on the Super Rugby Pacific table, making them one of the most impressive performers from the first half of the season. As you’ll see below, when we analyse the remaining schedule, the Reds are in a very promising place indeed to move even further up the table.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had the eighth most challenging schedule, proving their unbeaten run hasn’t been without challenges, but life certainly isn’t going to get any easier as the season progresses.
Two spots above the Hurricanes with the sixth most difficult schedule to date is the Waratahs. Boasting just one win in the season so far, the Sydneysiders will be disappointed they haven’t made the most of their opportunities thus far. The Waratahs are however the only team who face an even season split in their schedule strength, so as you’ll see below, any improvements in record the team make on the home stretch will be genuine.
The Crusaders and Western Force, owning the bottom two places on the Super Rugby Pacific table, have each faced the toughest schedules so far and will gladly accept the more competitive slate of fixtures heading their way in the coming weeks.
However, not far at all behind those two with an average opponent win rate of 63.6 per cent is the Highlanders. The Southerners have claimed two wins already in the season and sit in eighth place. With the worst behind them, expect the Highlanders to creep further up the standings in the second half of the season.
Schedule strength remaining
12. Reds (36.2% opposition win rate)
11. Western Force (44.5)
10. Crusaders (45.7)
9. Moana Pasifika (46.7)
8. Brumbies (47)
7. Highlanders (49.1)
6. Waratahs (52)
5. Fijian Drua (52.4)
4. Hurricanes (53.7)
3. Rebels (54.7)
2. Chiefs (56.8)
1. Blues (58.8)
Yes, the Reds have struck gold with their 2024 season schedule, facing comfortably the easiest remaining schedule. The Queensland team have only one remaining game against a team currently sitting above them on the table.
Western Force and Crusaders fans rejoice, brighter days are coming and while no wins are guaranteed, there’s cause for more confidence as the teams face some relatively weaker opposition.
The Brumbies sitting with the fifth easiest remaining schedule projects to leave the Australian heavyweights right at the top of the Super Rugby Pacific table again this year, as the team already sit third in the competition standings with just one loss. That being said, their next two encounters are against the Blues and Hurricanes, the only two sides above them on the ladder. So, there’s potential for things to get a little worse before they get better.
The universe is balanced; having enjoyed the easiest schedule in the first half of the season, the Blues now face the hardest remaining schedule with only two games against teams with under a 50 per cent win rate.
The Super Rugby Pacific table could look very different indeed once quarter-final time rolls around.
Comments on RugbyPass
Ben Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
19 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
19 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
19 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
19 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
86 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
3 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
9 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
19 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to comments